Bitcoin Monthly Returns
See Bitcoin monthly returns, compare the current month with prior years at the same calendar day, and explore rest-of-month outcomes and return paths.
Bitcoin monthly return at the same calendar day
An unfinished month is compared with previous years through the same calendar day. Full-month returns stay separate from the MTD percentile.
Bitcoin monthly return heatmap
Completed calendar-month returns plus the latest available month-to-date result. The median row summarizes completed historical months.
October returns from day 28 to month-end
For each prior year, measure the return from day 28 through the final daily close. The distribution shows the median and middle 50% of outcomes.
Monthly close target calculator
Enter a target monthly return to calculate the required Bitcoin close from the prior month-end reference.
October observations through day 28
Each row shows the same-day return, the remaining return to month-end, and the final monthly return for that year.
Bitcoin monthly returns at equal points in the month
Same-day MTD percentile
A +10% return on day 12 is not directly comparable with a completed monthly return. The same-day percentile compares day 12 only with prior years through day 12, and day 26 only with prior years through day 26.
The current selected month is measured against previous years through the same calendar day, then ranked within that distribution.
Monthly return paths
Two months can finish with similar returns after very different paths. The overlay keeps each historical month visible so you can see whether the current path is ordinary, unusually strong, or unusually volatile for that point in the calendar.
For current market leadership, compare crypto performance versus Bitcoin.
Data methodology and limitations
The historical series uses daily BTC/USD closing prices from the public MIT-licensed viratsoft/btc-price-json dataset, sourced from CoinGecko. Monthly returns use the prior month-end close as the starting reference. The dataset contains daily closes, not intraday OHLC, so exact intraday monthly highs and lows are not shown.
Bitcoin has a short history compared with traditional financial markets. Calendar-month samples are small, and market structure has changed substantially over time. Seasonality describes past monthly returns; it does not forecast the next month.
How are Bitcoin monthly returns calculated?
Each month's return is calculated from the previous month-end daily close to the final available daily close of the selected month.
What does MTD percentile mean?
It compares the latest selected month return with previous years of the same calendar month measured through the same day. Using equal observation lengths avoids comparing a partial month with completed months.
What is the rest-of-month distribution?
For each prior year, it measures Bitcoin's return from the same calendar day through that month's final close, then summarizes the historical outcomes.
Does Bitcoin seasonality predict future returns?
No. Calendar patterns are descriptive historical statistics. The sample is small, market structure changes over time, and historical monthly behavior does not determine future returns.
Use seasonality as context, not a standalone signal
Gunbot supports custom trading logic across supported exchanges. Calendar patterns can be combined with price, trend, entry, exit, and risk conditions.
